Summer Rain Making Brief Comeback

With an average total precipitation accumulation of 1.05 inches, the month of August is the second driest month of the year at Paine Field. At the time of writing this, the monthly total at KPAE is 0.51 inches, slightly behind the normal 0.56 inches. However, over the next few days, we could double our monthly total as the first atmospheric river of the season heads our way.

Figure 1: Integrated Water Vapor Transport forecast; darker colors show areas of more moisture

Figure 1 shows the setup of the atmospheric river, with the moisture aiming right at Washington. To read more about atmospheric rivers, click here.

Through the above visible satellite animation courtesy of NWS Seattle, you can see clouds associated with the incoming system poised to take aim at us.

For August, some of the rainfall totals across Western Washington look to be quite impressive.

Figure 2: Euro model for accumulated precipitation through Saturday evening

Areas especially near the Olympics look like they’ll get a good soaking, with some places approaching 2 inches!

Closer to home, the Euro model shows Everett to having just over a quarter inch. But when you look at the Euro ensemble (shown in Figure 3 below), the average (which is generally more skillful than individual members) is approaching a half inch.

Figure 3: Euro ensemble for total accumulated precipitation for KPAE

For the rain lovers out there (🙋‍♀️), enjoy it while it’s here because we are still in one of the driest times of the year, and the dry comes back full swing afterwards with not much more rain expected in the next couple weeks (at least at this time–it can change still).

Figure 4: 24 Hour Precipitation accumulation for KPAE (Euro ensemble)

It’s like a little taste of fall and winter weather in the midst of summer…but it makes me really excited for the cooler and wetter days ahead of us! Fall is coming… just gotta wait a little while longer!

Are you excited for Fall? Let me know in the comments below!

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